It is not a coincidence that Omicron, by far the most contagious variant(s) so far, is also the most mutated and by a lot. Underneath I have enlarged the header, which allows you to see the variants you've heard about in the past. Source (for this and all sequencing information): Covariants Each colored box represents a single mutation (see Figure 2 for explanation). Note the stark difference in numbers of mutations in the four Omicron columns (red bracket above, red box below). Top: Spike mutations found in variants of concern. I urge you not to skip over what appears upon first glance to be a horror show (below). Although it didn't make you as sick as Delta did, Omicron doesn't seem willing to go away anytime soon. We now have vaccines, antiviral drugs, antibody treatments, (moderately accurate) rapid home tests, and accurate lab PCR tests.īut we absolutely got clobbered by Delta, then by Omicron. Our progress in understanding and combating Covid, especially in such a short time, has been nothing short of miraculous. We know both more and less about Covid than we did in 2020 Is it time to mask up again? Definitely maybe. We are going through a charming time when pushing people in front of trains has become almost fashionable.) Now, I will not. And it's not just Covid. (Note from a hardened New Yorker: I rode the subways in the 70s when the experience was pretty much the same as a Road Warrior movie. You do not have to wear a mask at outdoor train stations and platforms, or at bus stops. Masks are still required at indoor train stations and on board subways, commuter rail, buses, and paratransit vehicles. The message from public transit authorities in New York is predictably bewildering: The answer is that none of us know and this is reflected in the conflicting information we are now bombarded with. Signs in libraries, dry cleaners and supermarkets have banal messages such as "please consider wearing masks to help protect our employees." Most medical care facilities still require them. Airlines just announced, to great celebration, that mask requirements would be dropped, but yesterday the CDC announced that masks should still be worn while flying. What's the average person supposed to do? If the message on masks was disjointed two years ago, it is utterly incoherent now. And in a previous life, I spent 10 years doing antiviral research in the pharmaceutical industry and now write about Covid professionally. Now I find myself staring at a box of N95s wondering what to do. The virus has behaved like something from a Michael Crichton book.īut I sure wore them on two different occasions: 1) before my second vaccination and 2) a year later when the previously unimaginable Omicron variant blazed through the world, infecting people who were and were not vaccinated, as well as those who had and had not caught Covid before. "Follow the science" has become "good luck guessing what's next." The fault lies squarely on the spikes of SARS-CoV-2. What's the best advice that the CDC could give Americans about the current phase of Covid? I haven't the wildest idea. Some will argue that "partly" is too generous. It is fair to say that whatever damage was done to its reputation was at least partly self-inflicted. Although I am loath to defend the agency (both because of its complicity in the opioid OD crisis and failure to deliver a coherent message during much of the pandemic) I need to cut them a break here.Įarly in the pandemic, the CDC did not look good it flip-flopped regularly, changing its advice both when the science changed but also when it didn't. Many have complained that the story (and advice) from the CDC keeps changing. The only certainty after two-plus years of Covid is uncertainty. Classic herd immunity as we know it is nothing but a pipe dream.
Anthony Fauci, a formerly optimistic proponent of HI, told us that it was now pretty much out of the question. Love him or hate him, there can be little doubt that Fauci has it right this time. Remember the early days of Covid when experts were excitedly talking about herd immunity (HI) and how things would get back to normal when this was reached? How long has it been since the term was used? The answer is five days.
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